Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Iran
  • Georgia
  • Israel
  • Jordan
  • Iraq
  • Oman
  • Kuwait
  • Azerbaijan
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Qatar
  • Maldives
  • Nepal

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,138,530$ on 2020-12-17

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $53,095$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{165,327.4}{1 + 10^{-0.005 (t - 362.5)}}\) (asimptote \(165,327.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $228,922$ on 2020-12-17

Georgia⮸

Population $3,989,167$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $201,368$ on 2020-12-17

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,953$ on 2020-12-17

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $30,133$ on 2020-12-17

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $367,975$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{370,478.4}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 197.7)}}\) (asimptote \(370,478.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,050$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,759.2}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 203.7)}}\) (asimptote \(3,759.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $21,940$ on 2020-12-17

Jordan⮸

Population $10,203,134$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $269,806$ on 2020-12-17

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,496$ on 2020-12-17

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $32,920$ on 2020-12-17

Iraq⮸

Population $40,222,493$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $580,449$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{608,353.6}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 194.7)}}\) (asimptote \(608,353.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $12,650$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,526.6}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 169.0)}}\) (asimptote \(12,526.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $52,478$ on 2020-12-17

Oman⮸

Population $5,106,626$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $127,019$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{118,375.1}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 145.2)}}\) (asimptote \(118,375.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,483$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,588.5}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 167.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,588.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,527$ on 2020-12-17

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $147,192$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{153,688.2}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 175.6)}}\) (asimptote \(153,688.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $913$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{980.9}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 136.8)}}\) (asimptote \(980.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,166$ on 2020-12-17

Azerbaijan⮸

Population $10,139,177$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $191,460$ on 2020-12-17

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,088$ on 2020-12-17

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $62,308$ on 2020-12-17

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Saudi Arabia recovered 95%
Qatar recovered 94%
Maldives recovered 80%
Kuwait recovered 80%
Nepal recovered 79%
Jordan recovered 76%
Tajikistan recovered 75%
India recovered 69%
Bangladesh recovered 50%
Iraq recovered 17%
Iran recovered 12%

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $360,516$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{347,729.0}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 108.3)}}\) (asimptote \(347,729.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,091$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,964.4}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 132.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,964.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,060$ on 2020-12-17

Qatar⮸

Population $2,881,053$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $141,557$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{129,273.8}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 100.9)}}\) (asimptote \(129,273.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $242$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{228.0}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 97.9)}}\) (asimptote \(228.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,072$ on 2020-12-17

Maldives⮸

Population $540,544$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $13,418$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13,672.0}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 170.4)}}\) (asimptote \(13,672.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $48$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{49.5}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 119.8)}}\) (asimptote \(49.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $542$ on 2020-12-17

Nepal⮸

Population $29,136,808$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $251,692$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{299,845.8}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 191.7)}}\) (asimptote \(299,845.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-05-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,749$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,289.5}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 174.2)}}\) (asimptote \(2,289.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,580$ on 2020-12-17